Why we are issuing this advisory
El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly. The World Meteorological Organization expects the event to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and typically peak between November and February. On 13 August, the US Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a very strong event above 90%, with a 69% chance of historic strength during October–December 2026.
This does not mean every exposed ingredient will become scarce. It does mean that crop yields, fisheries, freight routes, energy costs and buying behaviour can become more volatile. LifeLab is therefore encouraging customers to plan earlier rather than react after prices or lead times move.
Risk at a glance
The RAG rating below reflects potential exposure to El Niño-related disruption, supply concentration and the likely commercial impact on supplement manufacturing. It is a planning tool, not a prediction of shortage.
| RAG | Ingredient / category | Risk | Risk window | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RED | Fish oil / EPA-DHA | Very high | Now–Q2 2027 | Review immediately; consider 9–12 month demand commitment |
| RED | Turmeric / curcumin | High | Q4 2026–Q3 2027 | Secure forecast and pricing for 6–9 months |
| RED | Ashwagandha | High | Q4 2026–Q3 2027 | Secure forecast and pricing for 6–9 months |
| RED | Psyllium husk | High | Q4 2026–Q3 2027 | Secure forecast and pricing for 6–9 months |
| AMBER | Other Indian botanicals | Medium–high | Q4 2026–2027 | Review origin, harvest timing and supplier cover |
| AMBER | MCT / coconut derivatives | Medium–high | 2027–28 | Forward-plan; tree-crop effects can lag weather by months |
| AMBER | Palm-derived ingredients / carriers | Medium–high | 2027–28 | Monitor and consider forward pricing |
| AMBER | Rice-derived ingredients / rice protein | Medium | Q4 2026–2027 | Monitor crop, export policy and alternative origins |
| AMBER | Natural caffeine / coffee extracts | Medium | Q4 2026–2027 | Review high-volume requirements early |
| AMBER | Cocoa / fruit / selected plant extracts | Medium | Q4 2026–2027 | Review case by case |
| GREEN | Creatine, beta-alanine, citrulline, taurine | Low direct | Ongoing | Normal planning; other supply-chain risks remain |
| GREEN | Minerals and most synthetic vitamins | Low direct | Ongoing | Normal planning; monitor non-climate risks |
RAG definitions
RED
material exposure is significant enough that customers should review forward requirements now.
AMBER
elevated risk; monitor closely and consider earlier purchasing for important or high-volume products.
GREEN
limited direct El Niño exposure; standard procurement remains appropriate, although other geopolitical, energy and logistics risks may still apply.
Why the risk is increasing
Strong El Niño conditions are now established
WMO reported in July that El Niño had developed and was forecast to strengthen rapidly, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions. The organisation notes that El Niño raises the likelihood of heatwaves, drought, heavy rainfall and other extremes, while regional outcomes vary considerably.
Marine omega-3: the most immediate supplement-sector exposure
Peru’s anchoveta fishery is particularly sensitive to warm Pacific waters because fish distribution and productivity can change rapidly. Peru extended a fishing ban in June 2026 amid concerns over juvenile fish and the developing El Niño. The fish-oil market has previously shown how quickly supply and pricing can tighten when Peruvian fishing seasons are curtailed or cancelled.
For customers using fish-derived EPA/DHA, LifeLab recommends treating this as the highest-priority exposure. The objective is not to overbuy stock, but to establish realistic demand and discuss allocation and price options before the market tightens further.
India: concentrated botanical exposure
India’s 2026 agricultural season is exposed to rainfall uncertainty. WMO’s July outlook showed below-normal rainfall risk across parts of the Indian subcontinent, while CRISIL identified below-normal monsoon conditions, pest outbreaks and fertiliser constraints as key risks to the kharif season. Supplement ingredients with concentrated Indian production — including turmeric, ashwagandha and psyllium — therefore warrant earlier commercial planning.
Southeast Asia: delayed risk for oils and derivatives
Below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are forecast across parts of Southeast Asia. This matters for coconut and palm-derived materials used directly or as carriers and excipients. The effect may not be immediate: major palm producer SD Guthrie has warned that 2026 El Niño conditions could affect palm output in 2027–28 because production can respond with a 12–16 month lag.
Freight and indirect cost pressure
Weather disruption can also affect transport infrastructure and freight. Reuters reported drought-related cargo restrictions in the Panama Canal and highlighted wider risks from floods and drought across Latin America. These pressures can combine with energy, fertiliser and geopolitical disruption, so ingredient price movement may occur even where physical material remains available.
Recommended customer planning timeline
Confirm forecasts
Identify products containing RED or AMBER ingredients. Provide LifeLab with realistic demand through at least Q2 2027, ideally through Q3/Q4 for critical products.
Secure high-risk positions
Discuss forward raw-material purchasing, supplier allocation and longer-term pricing for fish oil and high-dependency botanical ingredients before the expected El Niño peak period.
Monitor peak El Niño period
Expect the greatest potential for market repricing, crop/fishery news and supplier lead-time changes. Avoid relying on short-notice spot purchasing for critical ingredients.
Review harvest and availability
Reassess Indian botanicals, rice-derived materials, coffee/natural caffeine and other agricultural inputs as crop outcomes become clearer.
Watch delayed tree-crop effects
Maintain closer monitoring of coconut, MCT, palm-derived carriers and other tree-crop inputs where drought can affect production with a significant lag.
How LifeLab can support customers
Forecast review:
We can review your current formulas and identify ingredients with elevated climate or supply-concentration exposure.
Forward purchasing:
Where commercially appropriate, we can discuss purchasing raw materials against agreed future production requirements.
Longer-term pricing:
Where suppliers are able to support it, we can seek fixed or structured pricing for agreed quantities and periods.
Alternative sourcing:
Where a material becomes constrained, we can review approved alternative suppliers, origins or technically suitable options, subject to specification, quality and regulatory requirements.
Production planning:
Earlier order visibility gives LifeLab more scope to align raw-material supply with manufacturing capacity and requested delivery windows.
Basis of this advisory
This advisory has been prepared using public climate and market information available as at 15 August 2026. Key sources include:
- World Meteorological Organization (3 July 2026), “El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather”.
- World Meteorological Organization, Global Seasonal Climate Update for July–September 2026.
- US Climate Prediction Center reporting via Reuters (13 August 2026): more than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño; 69% probability of historic strength in October–December 2026.
- Reuters (11 August 2026), global agricultural resilience and risk during the 2026 super El Niño.
- Reuters (11 August 2026), SD Guthrie warning on delayed 2027–28 palm-oil production effects.
- Reuters (13 August 2026), Latin American agricultural, fisheries and logistics exposure.
- CRISIL (4 June 2026), 2026 India kharif season risk assessment.
- NutraIngredients (17 June 2026), Peru fishing restrictions and fish-oil supply exposure.
Important note
This document is intended as a forward-planning advisory and does not constitute a guarantee of future availability, price movement, crop outcome or lead time. El Niño impacts vary by geography and commodity, and actual supply conditions may differ from current forecasts. Any forward purchase, allocation or price arrangement is subject to supplier availability, specification approval, commercial agreement and LifeLab’s applicable terms.
